Budget = Election

I woke up this morning and looked out the window. I went back to bed.

I think this weather is foreshadowing something gloomy in politics. An election possibly?

On Monday, the Federal Conservatives tabled their budget for 2011, amid intense criticism from all other parties. The Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois have all formally stated they will not support the budget, which means... there will most likely be an election.

First, lets look at why this can happen. Stephen Harper has a minority government, meaning he has less than half the seats in the House of Commons. Whenever there is government legislation that involves the allocation of money, there needs to be more than 50% support in the House from MPs. If the Federal Conservatives cannot garner 50% support, it means the House of Commons does not have "confidence" in the leading party; there is then an election.

Here is something to consider: Last week Stephen Harper met with Quebec Premiere Jean Charest. Apparently it was a secretive-type meeting, and it wasn't on any public agendas. Anyways, maybe you remember the Bloc's Gilles Duceppe asking for 5b dollars for Quebec. Well, word is Stephen Harper could possible amend the budget to include 2b dollars for Quebec, therefore giving into some of the Bloc's demands. The money would be for such things as: sports stadiums, HST compensation, oil and gas development, and federally subsidized poutine shops. Ok, maybe not poutine shops. Pundits speculate that Gilles Duceppe would agree with the budget if the 2b concession was made. In that case there would be no election due to majority support for the budget in the House of Commons. Is this a possibility?

So what if there is an election? My prediction: The Conservatives will win another minority government, but it will be a bit stronger.